Schlock and Awww
There is an emerging global narrative that democracy is imperiled, and that with the seeming retreat of the United States as the arbiter of the economic and political order, a period of chaos and darkness looms. Maybe. But there is another narrative that may prove more accurate: all this noise and turmoil and fear and uncertainty are the roiling pangs of more people everywhere adding their voices to their political, social, and economic systems, mostly via the social media channels that now route much of collective discussion and debate throughout the world. In short, we may be seeing not the death or even retreat of freedom and democracy, but its odd, messy efflorescence.
Take Exhibit A: the United States. As we approach the 100-day mark of the Second Season of the Trump Show, views are predictably and firmly divided. On one side, we have a cohort of MAGA supporters who believe the administration has been a rousing success, restoring order to the border, ending DEI, attacking government waste and inefficiency, and standing up to other nations that have taken a free ride on the dollar and American security guarantees. On the other side, we have a cohort that believes the administration has veered into authoritarianism, that American democracy is facing an unprecedented attack, and that we are in an existential contest between freedom and an oligarchic, fascist, kleptocratic future. And then, the mass of people in neither camp are increasingly registering concern about their economic future and the administration’s policies.
As I’ve suggested in earlier pieces, the daily gyrations of attitudes, fears, and bombast create a chronic forest-and-trees problem. The on-again, off-again, on-again, sort-of-on-again, maybe-somewhat-less-on-again, wait-off-again, we-have-a-deal, no-we-don’t-have-a-deal, we-might-lift-some, we-might-not, don’t-worry-be-happy messaging of the White House about tariffs obscures the basic reality I wrote about weeks ago: the reciprocal tariffs announced in early April, followed by 145% tariffs on all Chinese imports, cannot be sustained for the simple reason that they are unsustainable—a point reportedly impressed upon the president by the CEOs of Target, Walmart, and Home Depot in an unscheduled emergency meeting at the White House earlier this week.
In fact, at the present moment, the furious engine of change and disruption driving the White House looks sputtering at best—regardless of whether you approve or are appalled by what’s been done so far. Elon Musk just announced that he would be stepping away from his government work, not entirely but significantly nonetheless. The United States remains a very large and complicated country, with multiple centers of power, not just within the federal government, but in the 50 states, hundreds of municipalities, and an immense private sector. Trump’s rapidly declining approval numbers are indicative of that. All of this is, of course, just a snapshot in time, but even over the course of three months, that picture has changed dramatically—and likely will continue to. What looked like shock and awe to the system even a month ago is beginning to look more like schlock and aww.
The challenge of a lightning-fast news and information era is that the reality of uncertainty and nuance is consistently drowned out by the desire for immediate conclusions. Trump himself is a master of that, and his ability to own attention is a product of his capacity to declare things absolutely, even if days later he declares the exact opposite, absolutely.
That phenomenon has echoes globally, especially in countries with leaders who know how to own attention and manipulate the information stream—whether that’s Modi in India, Erdogan in Turkey, Putin in Russia, or Xi Jinping in China. And yet, only in those places where that attention-grabbing is paired with the use of force and violence to silence dissent does owning the information space translate into real control. That’s why there’s such a spectrum of control—with North Korea on one extreme. Modi has immense power in India, but not nearly the same degree of control, because even with intimidation and the use of laws and force to shut down media outlets, India remains a roiling democracy, with considerable and explicit debate and contestation.
Then there are other societies, such as Brazil and South Korea, which have recently faced their own existential threats to democracy and freedom—and have resoundingly passed the test. In Brazil, with the trial of Jair Bolsonaro for a coup attempt after his 2022 election defeat. In South Korea, with the ouster and impeachment of the president for a failed six-hour attempt to use martial law to suspend Parliament and silence dissent. And then, of course, there is the United States, which—for all the internal tumult and voices warning of fascism—is not anywhere near what these other countries have confronted.
If you were the proverbial alien watching these spectacles from afar, what would you conclude? Would you see the mass trampling of rights and freedoms—or would you see a level of turmoil that is a reflection of freedom rather than a harbinger of its end? And yes, you would also mull what is even meant by the word freedom. You’d likely distinguish between China and the United States in the degree of personal freedoms—the right to speak, to organize politically, to move from place to place. China is unquestionably in the best material shape it has ever been, even with hiccups in recent years, but it is not a free or open society—and it doesn’t appear to be heading in that direction, despite the appearance of doing so until Xi came to power in 2012. But for the rest of the world? There is very much an eye-of-the-beholder issue, with vast swaths of the globe more affluent and more open than ever—even as the collective narrative grows darker.
It is easy to misinterpret crisis. In the United States, it seems not to have occurred to passionate partisans that they may both be wrong—that the Trump Show will neither Make America Great Again nor lead to the death of democracy. It will have some successes, some failures, and likely end with a blah. A world where everyone can access more information than ever, and where the rise of AI is accelerating what already felt fast-paced, may be eroding our collective ability to frame coherent stories about what is going on. But if you shake up the kaleidoscope, you can see a different picture every day—every minute.
What is clear this week is that the aura of a clear and certain trajectory for the Trump Show has dissipated. There will be a new episode next week. It might bring more crisis, or some pause, but rest assured, the story will change. It already has. The pushback and the reaction have gotten stronger. Whether you love that or hate it, it just has. That alone is a sign of a system in flux and still open—proof that it is far easier to break things and move fast than it is to govern and steer a vast and complicated economy and society. Hence, why Elon Musk is in retreat. Is any of this tumult “good news?” Maybe, maybe not. But it is an indication that the minute you think you know how this show ends, there’s a plot twist. And for now, the plot has decidedly thickened.
Students of the rise of fascism ( actual historians) might consider this downplaying of the threat of totalitarianism to be dangerously naive. Those unfamiliar with the dismantling of democracies ( that would be most of us) have no idea when to be alarmed by Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, and his state intentions. What I hear is that it happens very quickly….. Did Hitler dismantle Germany’s government checks and balances in 54 days, as has been suggested? Just what are Trump’s real objectives, and what key results have already been delivered by a compliant congress and Supreme Court? Is this the time to disregard real and present threats?
Dear Mr Karabell,
At the very least you are being complacent. And by the way: saying that 145% tariffs cannot be sustained because they are unsustainable is a tautology.
Apart from the chaos surrounding the tariffs and DOGE, have you noticed the plain clothed, masked ICE agents literally kidnapping people off the street. Have you noticed the all-out attempt to defy the courts, including the Supreme Court, on the issue of deportations, especially those to El Salvador's appalling prison system. Undermining the rule of law is frightening at best. You diminish the impact of COVID, but how fast did Medieval Society notice the profound effect the Plague had on the Feudal system. When peasants realized the scarcity of labor had become a bargaining tool, the feudal social compact was undermined. Just as the "high" middle ages have been described by professional historians as a harbinger of modernity, perhaps what we are seeing is our own harbinger of a post modern social compact. I am all for optimism, but with some realism thrown in