I am not smart enough or educated enough on issues, but I do very much appreciate adding your take on matters to the other opinions I read/listen to. You provide a non-shrill, non-partisan-freakshow, thoughtful, measured take on what you write about. Thank you for your non anxious presence in the thought-sphere!
I fully agree with your assessment that these tariffs will bring us nothing but self-harm. I'm heartened to even see some rumblings among Senate Republicans about finally clawing back a modicum of their constitutional authority to roll back some of the particularly self-sabotaging tariffs.
For what it's worth, I read recently about a global trade war simulation run by the Center for a New American Security, "a bipartisan think tank focused on security issues." They did see possible scenarios where the US could end up in a good place at the end of a trade war. Of course, I am highly skeptical that this administration is capable of threading the needle required to achieve that outcome...
Why are you highly skeptical of longer term positive outcomes? My read is that tariffs on China will remain elevated. Even 46 didn’t reduce what 45 implemented on Beijing. Now 47 ratchets it up. I’m fine with that. Continue to drive business out of PRC. And most all others end up in the 10% range after dust settles. Enough on-going import tax to help fill federal coffers but also not eliminate that trade. That’s the price paid for access to world’s largest consumption market. US needs the $, serving the annual debt now exceeds defense spending. The world no longer gets a free ride. In fact, Bretton Woods 1944 is going to be fundamentally altered. This is a once in a century change, and its aim is to benefit Main Street first, and Wall Street a more distant 2nd.
These were not 10% tariffs across the board. These were much higher and applied to thousands of goods that the U.S. doesn't make and can't, like coffee beans and diamonds. And with tariffs this high, many U.S. manufacturers will find their input costs have gone up 25-30% and will have zero choice but to pass those costs on to their customers. You cant just reinvent a global system by snapping your fingers and slapping on high taxes
Oh yes, I know they were much (much) higher than 10%. 10% out of the gate only for a few countries (like Brazil, Argentina). But after negotiating, I’m forecasting they settle into the 10% range for most (with the exception of PRC which will remain much higher). I’m suggesting that Trump purposely started high, even inflating opposing country tariff rate further, by including ‘fiat currency manipulation’ & VAT. In my business (and I think most) one always starts negotiations high, and then you settle where both parties walk away with a win, but not 100% of what was initially asked. That is what I believe is going on now between DJT/US and each country. Those w/ the most to lose by denial to our market, will fold and lower rates. Others who think they have leverage may dig in their heels (see China, France, UK). China does have real leverage, they own some $800B in our debt. Japan too, which owns some $1.1T in US debt. Gonna be an interesting month as this is 1st time in 80 years a real price tag / toll has been placed on access to US market. What’s it worth to the rest of the world?
Nice of taking the time to explain. I commend you. Unfortunately, it has been evidenced there is no reasoning with these libturds. They are either deranged or bought.
The US is not (well was not) simply a consumption engine. We were the most militarily powerful country in the world. We were a source of stability for many parts of the world. We were a place where investors around the world could make safe and secure capital investments. We were an engine of innovation. As a result, we have over 20% of the world's GDP but a small fraction of the world's population.
The tariffs and the way they are playing out seem to have dramatically reduced our former partner's view that we are stable. We are now a much less attractive place to invest. Combining this with recent changes in federal research funding make it questionable whether we will retain our technological edge. Changes in our military stance certainly have put doubt in both our friends and our common enemies eyes that we will ever be a source of military stability.
The comparison with Brexit is apt. England likewise gave away its power in Brexit. Euro positions went to other countries. Ireland is booming with its advantages as being the only English speaking euro country. Germany has picked up finances. England, well their taxes have gone up and their wealth has gone down. The US strategy seems like a doubling down of that.
Rome wasn't built in a day, but is sure came down hard and fast. The Trump administration learned the first time around that you can't just "wait" for opportunities to enact policies demanded by the voters. You have to get out of the gate with a bang. This administration is doing just that. The voters have already spoken, it is now time for action. Uncomfortable? Hell yes! But the dismantling of the bloated, corrupt, and bankrupt government institutions is necessary. We can't just "go along like we always have." It's stupid and arrogant to believe that it should happen at a slower pace. Rebuilding is what will take time (if you want to do it right)! Much will be done in the next 4 years, and much will be left to complete. But once the people (not the pandering politicians) actually see that a better form of government is enabled, they will continue to demand respect and leadership actions that are transparent, accountable, and FOR THE PEOPLE. Tariffs are going to be a huge shake-up in the world economy, but they will not kill the economy. The United States can no longer be the World bank or finance monitor. No other country seeks the approval of other sovereign governments before making financial decisions that benefit its own citizens. We, too, must look to invest into THIS country FIRST. Give it time, Zachary, give it time. You should know by now that even the most unpopular choices initially, can turn out to be a good thing in the long run. Complaining about it in 73 days is infantile and shortsighted. Give it two years, perhaps then you will have a barometer that is more accurate.
If you stabbed yourself in the stomach and I said, hey, you'll be fine, just give it time, I doubt that would be acceptable. More government efficiency is not the same as upending a global trade system that tens of millions of Americans depend on. Saying that companies should move production here with zero incentives, zero planning and zero strategy to motivate hundreds of billions of dollars of private spending is a wish without a plan. Why are we taxing coffee imports? We dont grow coffee! how about Mexican avocados? Same thing. More expensive inputs for our factories? where is the money supposed to come from to replace supply chains? and that takes years and years. Do you think Americans voted for years of higher prices and that disruption? And then take the fact that we already invest massively in our country. We already have a domestic system that is flawed but intensely vibrant. Tariffs have zero to do with "dismantling bloated, corrupt and bankrupt government institutions."
The stock market is the only place where when stuff goes on sale everyone gets angry… 🤷 Feels like the time is right to start cutting interest rates. Israel dropped its tariff vs. US products to zero. Vietnam now at the negotiating table and footwear & apparel stocks rising back up today on the news. EU telegraphing they will drop tariff’s on US car imports to 2.5% (from 10%) to match the 2.5% level US imposes.
The scramble described in this Financial Times article will continue on after the April 9 reciprocal tariff start. But most all will be negotiated out for the betterment of US workers / middle class.
Matt, you are correct! Those individuals who fear the drops in the foreign markets and our stock markets, are only listening to those who are blind to the fact that this market “correction” has been predicted for over a year! The good news is that the USA started it by reducing overinflated stocks, cutting government wast, and reallocating this savings into programs by eliminating social security payments to dead persons and multiple ID theft scams. That is a boost to those needing that money. If paying higher prices for cars, trucks, refrigerators, washing machines and refrigerators is a bit more, then talk to the Persians who bought “cheap” products that do not perform well, with no recourse to the purchaser. The prudent advice is to wait. Zach, Stop trying to wave red flags in front of dimwitted bulls in the marketplace who have done little to none investigating into their funds, and the rise and fall of those funds. Yes, shakeup has to happen, even the anarchists want to tear it all down and rebuild. You don’t plant a seed and then harvest a crop in 73 days. Our economy is fine. It will bounce back and be better. I’m waiting for you to write the great turnaround story, against all whiny odds why it wouldn’t, when it can and does. Orders are already pouring into American manufacturer jobs. Go on vacation and sit this one out two weeks. I’m sure the stab wound in my gut will have also made a great recovery. The day of reckoning is here. I’ll be my subscription that all will be well and getting better by day 100. Now, go wrap yourself in your CNN fleece blanket, drink a few soothing drinks of choice, and wake up to see what actually happened while you were asleep at the wheel.
The fact that you’ve reserved judgement on this administration until recently makes this critique all the more trustworthy. Thanks for weighing in so thoroughly.
Imagine a product being sold in the US at $1.00. Then, oopsie, along comes a10% tariff, so the product is now costing a total of $1.10. But the buyer won't pay that. So the vendor cuts his wholesale rate to $0.90. Tough luck for the vendor. But same price of $1.00 for Mr Joe Public in the US. This is what is known as Hardball.
This is a well-written summary of our situation. There's a joke about the optimistic kid, given a large pile of horse manure, runs in shouting there's got to be a pony in here someplace! This piece describes the contours of the pile o manure in exquisite detail. Where's the pony? That we will have learned to not trust populists?
You state that people don’t vote for ideas and vision…they vote for…In my experience people don’t vote FOR anything…They vote AGAINST something or someone they blame for their situation!
A good friend of mine once told me that HATE is the greatest motivator.
THIS IS OUR PROBLEM. There are “leaders” rising telling the citizens of the former United States that they need to grow up…so
This country can grow up and solve this problem.
(Cory Booker for example spoke for 25 hours on the subject! )
The numbers vary but CLEARLY the vast majority of citizens did NOT VOTE for the Antichrist…because more than a third of US did not (or possibly could not) vote.
The Republican’ts orchestrated this for the last 8 years…spreading hate, blame and doubt about the effectiveness of democracy and democrats and buying up state officials to ensure they would win even with a inept clown blowing the microphone and calling for executions of those who oppose HIM!
WE NEED TO FIX THIS BY CONVEYING IDEAS AND UPLIFTING MESSAGING THAT WILL MOTIVATE THOSE WHO FAILED TO PARTICIPATE. THOSE WHO HAVE GIVEN UP
AFTER LOSING THIS CRITICAL BATTLE NEED TO KNOW THE WAR IS NOT YET LOST!
Bernie has a solution! So does Cory, Pete, Kamala and many former Repubicans. We even have some Independents chiming in.
This isn’t over because one lazy golfer got propped up
By billionaires and declared himself to be king. We have 250+ years of freedom to rely on and A VAST MAJORITY who want something much much better…they just have to learn a very hard lesson of ADULT responsibility
Appreciate your thoughts here. The silver lining that I infer from your post is that our two-party system may finally lose enough power to bring forward candidates in future elections that are truly representative of the people and not the donor class.
For decades now the DNC and GOP have been locked in an enabling dynamic fueled by wealthy interests that keep the voting public in a perpetual negativity bias ("vote for me because the other guy is bad/worse") while the wealthy reap policy benefits regardless of which party is in power.
My hope is that both parties lose enough credibility to allow for a slate of reform candidates in the next election who are untethered from big donors, who will enact policies to reduce economic inequality, who will prioritize government stability and equity over partisan gridlock. I'm keeping an eye out for those potential candidates, I hope you are as well.
You want TDS? How about your inability to read any critique of a policy move by Trump as stemming from anything other than TDS. Do you not think it possible to strongly criticize a policy move because that policy is flawed? I vehemently criticized many of Obama and Biden policies, and have supported some of Trump's, and yet, your only coherent response is to dismiss any criticism because you think it must stem from derangement? Seriously? That is itself a deep myopia on your part. And no, you didnt reread the piece well enough, or you would have noticed that it says explicitly that there is a coherent way to develop a policy with a clear strategy and political buy-in and that none of that was done in the case of sudden and sharp tariffs. Understanding tariffs and these tariffs done this way are not the same thing. Please explain tariffs on imports of coffee we don't grow. Or tariffs on auto supplies we don't make and can't suddenly make and how that doesn't raise the cost of automobiles and to what end? And that factories take years to build along with labor and supply chains, and of course factories no longer employ nearly as many workers because of robotics, so factories are not job engines. And on and on and on
I am not smart enough or educated enough on issues, but I do very much appreciate adding your take on matters to the other opinions I read/listen to. You provide a non-shrill, non-partisan-freakshow, thoughtful, measured take on what you write about. Thank you for your non anxious presence in the thought-sphere!
Bravo
This is brilliant. Thank you. And also gave me some hope. That people might wake up when they are delivered mud.
I fully agree with your assessment that these tariffs will bring us nothing but self-harm. I'm heartened to even see some rumblings among Senate Republicans about finally clawing back a modicum of their constitutional authority to roll back some of the particularly self-sabotaging tariffs.
For what it's worth, I read recently about a global trade war simulation run by the Center for a New American Security, "a bipartisan think tank focused on security issues." They did see possible scenarios where the US could end up in a good place at the end of a trade war. Of course, I am highly skeptical that this administration is capable of threading the needle required to achieve that outcome...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/business/economy/trump-trade-war-game.html
Why are you highly skeptical of longer term positive outcomes? My read is that tariffs on China will remain elevated. Even 46 didn’t reduce what 45 implemented on Beijing. Now 47 ratchets it up. I’m fine with that. Continue to drive business out of PRC. And most all others end up in the 10% range after dust settles. Enough on-going import tax to help fill federal coffers but also not eliminate that trade. That’s the price paid for access to world’s largest consumption market. US needs the $, serving the annual debt now exceeds defense spending. The world no longer gets a free ride. In fact, Bretton Woods 1944 is going to be fundamentally altered. This is a once in a century change, and its aim is to benefit Main Street first, and Wall Street a more distant 2nd.
These were not 10% tariffs across the board. These were much higher and applied to thousands of goods that the U.S. doesn't make and can't, like coffee beans and diamonds. And with tariffs this high, many U.S. manufacturers will find their input costs have gone up 25-30% and will have zero choice but to pass those costs on to their customers. You cant just reinvent a global system by snapping your fingers and slapping on high taxes
Oh yes, I know they were much (much) higher than 10%. 10% out of the gate only for a few countries (like Brazil, Argentina). But after negotiating, I’m forecasting they settle into the 10% range for most (with the exception of PRC which will remain much higher). I’m suggesting that Trump purposely started high, even inflating opposing country tariff rate further, by including ‘fiat currency manipulation’ & VAT. In my business (and I think most) one always starts negotiations high, and then you settle where both parties walk away with a win, but not 100% of what was initially asked. That is what I believe is going on now between DJT/US and each country. Those w/ the most to lose by denial to our market, will fold and lower rates. Others who think they have leverage may dig in their heels (see China, France, UK). China does have real leverage, they own some $800B in our debt. Japan too, which owns some $1.1T in US debt. Gonna be an interesting month as this is 1st time in 80 years a real price tag / toll has been placed on access to US market. What’s it worth to the rest of the world?
Nice of taking the time to explain. I commend you. Unfortunately, it has been evidenced there is no reasoning with these libturds. They are either deranged or bought.
The US is not (well was not) simply a consumption engine. We were the most militarily powerful country in the world. We were a source of stability for many parts of the world. We were a place where investors around the world could make safe and secure capital investments. We were an engine of innovation. As a result, we have over 20% of the world's GDP but a small fraction of the world's population.
The tariffs and the way they are playing out seem to have dramatically reduced our former partner's view that we are stable. We are now a much less attractive place to invest. Combining this with recent changes in federal research funding make it questionable whether we will retain our technological edge. Changes in our military stance certainly have put doubt in both our friends and our common enemies eyes that we will ever be a source of military stability.
The comparison with Brexit is apt. England likewise gave away its power in Brexit. Euro positions went to other countries. Ireland is booming with its advantages as being the only English speaking euro country. Germany has picked up finances. England, well their taxes have gone up and their wealth has gone down. The US strategy seems like a doubling down of that.
Rome wasn't built in a day, but is sure came down hard and fast. The Trump administration learned the first time around that you can't just "wait" for opportunities to enact policies demanded by the voters. You have to get out of the gate with a bang. This administration is doing just that. The voters have already spoken, it is now time for action. Uncomfortable? Hell yes! But the dismantling of the bloated, corrupt, and bankrupt government institutions is necessary. We can't just "go along like we always have." It's stupid and arrogant to believe that it should happen at a slower pace. Rebuilding is what will take time (if you want to do it right)! Much will be done in the next 4 years, and much will be left to complete. But once the people (not the pandering politicians) actually see that a better form of government is enabled, they will continue to demand respect and leadership actions that are transparent, accountable, and FOR THE PEOPLE. Tariffs are going to be a huge shake-up in the world economy, but they will not kill the economy. The United States can no longer be the World bank or finance monitor. No other country seeks the approval of other sovereign governments before making financial decisions that benefit its own citizens. We, too, must look to invest into THIS country FIRST. Give it time, Zachary, give it time. You should know by now that even the most unpopular choices initially, can turn out to be a good thing in the long run. Complaining about it in 73 days is infantile and shortsighted. Give it two years, perhaps then you will have a barometer that is more accurate.
If you stabbed yourself in the stomach and I said, hey, you'll be fine, just give it time, I doubt that would be acceptable. More government efficiency is not the same as upending a global trade system that tens of millions of Americans depend on. Saying that companies should move production here with zero incentives, zero planning and zero strategy to motivate hundreds of billions of dollars of private spending is a wish without a plan. Why are we taxing coffee imports? We dont grow coffee! how about Mexican avocados? Same thing. More expensive inputs for our factories? where is the money supposed to come from to replace supply chains? and that takes years and years. Do you think Americans voted for years of higher prices and that disruption? And then take the fact that we already invest massively in our country. We already have a domestic system that is flawed but intensely vibrant. Tariffs have zero to do with "dismantling bloated, corrupt and bankrupt government institutions."
The stock market is the only place where when stuff goes on sale everyone gets angry… 🤷 Feels like the time is right to start cutting interest rates. Israel dropped its tariff vs. US products to zero. Vietnam now at the negotiating table and footwear & apparel stocks rising back up today on the news. EU telegraphing they will drop tariff’s on US car imports to 2.5% (from 10%) to match the 2.5% level US imposes.
The scramble described in this Financial Times article will continue on after the April 9 reciprocal tariff start. But most all will be negotiated out for the betterment of US workers / middle class.
https://www.ft.com/content/0431ef42-7386-4e19-935e-a06ae40f474c
As for portfolio’s don’t grab a falling knife. Bottom is likely around SPX 4,600?
Matt, you are correct! Those individuals who fear the drops in the foreign markets and our stock markets, are only listening to those who are blind to the fact that this market “correction” has been predicted for over a year! The good news is that the USA started it by reducing overinflated stocks, cutting government wast, and reallocating this savings into programs by eliminating social security payments to dead persons and multiple ID theft scams. That is a boost to those needing that money. If paying higher prices for cars, trucks, refrigerators, washing machines and refrigerators is a bit more, then talk to the Persians who bought “cheap” products that do not perform well, with no recourse to the purchaser. The prudent advice is to wait. Zach, Stop trying to wave red flags in front of dimwitted bulls in the marketplace who have done little to none investigating into their funds, and the rise and fall of those funds. Yes, shakeup has to happen, even the anarchists want to tear it all down and rebuild. You don’t plant a seed and then harvest a crop in 73 days. Our economy is fine. It will bounce back and be better. I’m waiting for you to write the great turnaround story, against all whiny odds why it wouldn’t, when it can and does. Orders are already pouring into American manufacturer jobs. Go on vacation and sit this one out two weeks. I’m sure the stab wound in my gut will have also made a great recovery. The day of reckoning is here. I’ll be my subscription that all will be well and getting better by day 100. Now, go wrap yourself in your CNN fleece blanket, drink a few soothing drinks of choice, and wake up to see what actually happened while you were asleep at the wheel.
Please name the dead people who were collecting Social Security checks that were eliminated by DOGE. I will wait.
Sorry about the “Persians” autocorrect! =persons!
The fact that you’ve reserved judgement on this administration until recently makes this critique all the more trustworthy. Thanks for weighing in so thoroughly.
Imagine a product being sold in the US at $1.00. Then, oopsie, along comes a10% tariff, so the product is now costing a total of $1.10. But the buyer won't pay that. So the vendor cuts his wholesale rate to $0.90. Tough luck for the vendor. But same price of $1.00 for Mr Joe Public in the US. This is what is known as Hardball.
Except the .10 in this case is likely to be .50 or substantially more.
This is a well-written summary of our situation. There's a joke about the optimistic kid, given a large pile of horse manure, runs in shouting there's got to be a pony in here someplace! This piece describes the contours of the pile o manure in exquisite detail. Where's the pony? That we will have learned to not trust populists?
You state that people don’t vote for ideas and vision…they vote for…In my experience people don’t vote FOR anything…They vote AGAINST something or someone they blame for their situation!
A good friend of mine once told me that HATE is the greatest motivator.
THIS IS OUR PROBLEM. There are “leaders” rising telling the citizens of the former United States that they need to grow up…so
This country can grow up and solve this problem.
(Cory Booker for example spoke for 25 hours on the subject! )
The numbers vary but CLEARLY the vast majority of citizens did NOT VOTE for the Antichrist…because more than a third of US did not (or possibly could not) vote.
The Republican’ts orchestrated this for the last 8 years…spreading hate, blame and doubt about the effectiveness of democracy and democrats and buying up state officials to ensure they would win even with a inept clown blowing the microphone and calling for executions of those who oppose HIM!
WE NEED TO FIX THIS BY CONVEYING IDEAS AND UPLIFTING MESSAGING THAT WILL MOTIVATE THOSE WHO FAILED TO PARTICIPATE. THOSE WHO HAVE GIVEN UP
AFTER LOSING THIS CRITICAL BATTLE NEED TO KNOW THE WAR IS NOT YET LOST!
Bernie has a solution! So does Cory, Pete, Kamala and many former Repubicans. We even have some Independents chiming in.
This isn’t over because one lazy golfer got propped up
By billionaires and declared himself to be king. We have 250+ years of freedom to rely on and A VAST MAJORITY who want something much much better…they just have to learn a very hard lesson of ADULT responsibility
I have never believed Trump was a Republican.
Spot on. Sadly.
Appreciate your thoughts here. The silver lining that I infer from your post is that our two-party system may finally lose enough power to bring forward candidates in future elections that are truly representative of the people and not the donor class.
For decades now the DNC and GOP have been locked in an enabling dynamic fueled by wealthy interests that keep the voting public in a perpetual negativity bias ("vote for me because the other guy is bad/worse") while the wealthy reap policy benefits regardless of which party is in power.
My hope is that both parties lose enough credibility to allow for a slate of reform candidates in the next election who are untethered from big donors, who will enact policies to reduce economic inequality, who will prioritize government stability and equity over partisan gridlock. I'm keeping an eye out for those potential candidates, I hope you are as well.
You want TDS? How about your inability to read any critique of a policy move by Trump as stemming from anything other than TDS. Do you not think it possible to strongly criticize a policy move because that policy is flawed? I vehemently criticized many of Obama and Biden policies, and have supported some of Trump's, and yet, your only coherent response is to dismiss any criticism because you think it must stem from derangement? Seriously? That is itself a deep myopia on your part. And no, you didnt reread the piece well enough, or you would have noticed that it says explicitly that there is a coherent way to develop a policy with a clear strategy and political buy-in and that none of that was done in the case of sudden and sharp tariffs. Understanding tariffs and these tariffs done this way are not the same thing. Please explain tariffs on imports of coffee we don't grow. Or tariffs on auto supplies we don't make and can't suddenly make and how that doesn't raise the cost of automobiles and to what end? And that factories take years to build along with labor and supply chains, and of course factories no longer employ nearly as many workers because of robotics, so factories are not job engines. And on and on and on